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Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that divided the country and unleashed turmoil, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

Policymakers and voters drifted into Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is ready.

That is the message from two leading writers from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Institutions Unprepared

Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and seismic referendum.

"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can come out of the blue and can build support rapidly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains very unstable."

New Title Intends to Encourage Dialogue

The pair have examined the governmental, economic and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a book, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to stir debate on the issue with a tour of public talks that will bring them to Westminster early next month.

"What haunts everyone, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.

"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose results have not been clarified because then you land with an extraordinarily divided society where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the victorious side are uncertain exactly what it is that they have won."

Legal Framework

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.

Sinn Féin and other nationalists say such a time is imminent, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and unionists play down the possibility, resulting in ambiguity when or if there might be a referendum.

Lack of Substantive Discussion

Ideological statements for and against unification has masked the shortage of serious debate, said McBride.

"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which could extend past that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has occurred in universities but very few elected officials or campaigners seek to involve themselves with the essentials. As an example, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"

Publication's Method

In the volume, neither author advocates unity or the status quo. Both writes two articles that aim for impartiality in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the rationale against, assembling financial and social figures, past examples and governmental frameworks.

Arguments cover flags and symbols, levies, healthcare systems, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The objective is to inform and encourage discussion.

"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there has not yet occurred a debate," stated the writer. "Discussion indicates an recognition of the concept that there may exist valid points on either side."

Parallel Votes

A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they favour unity but oppose paying higher taxes or adopting a new flag to recognise unionists' UK heritage.

"Policymakers in Ireland must work out what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.

Possibility of Public Vote

McBride thinks a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it may take place suddenly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a feckless secretary of state who states: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"

Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate arguments, he said. "One side will prevail in this matter and the other side will ultimately lose but each side has has something to gain from the opposing viewpoints."

Appeal for Broader Discussion

Westminster must join the debate, stated the analyst. "This is about your state. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish question."